Past Pattern in May 6th 2010 Election

Countdown to UK 2015 election began. The market was auspicious. FTSE 100 has range between 6,046 and 7,133 since August 2014. The highest level in 7 years. Meanwhile, the GBPUSD has stood above 1.5000 for May 2015. Good economic news, but the outcome of UK election in hours might change the current trend in asset price.

Let’s looking back at May 2010 for a while. FTSE 100 gradually declined from above 5,700.00 on April 15^th to below 5,100.00 on May 6^th with range between 5,800.00 and 4,780.00. While the pound dropped more than 600 pips in a month until May 6^th from above 1.5000 to 1.47. The pound down to 1.45 the day after the election, then it slightly recover and briefly touched 1.50 on May 12^th once the coalition was formed. It slopped down again on May 20^th to 1.4231, before revived to 1.5600 on December 21^st.

The past might not repeated again in regard of UK economic condition differences between last election and today. However, careful will do no harm. It is better to wait for 48 hours for seeing if the pattern will be back again.

Imperial Tobabcco Group PLC from April 27

Imperial Tobacco Group PLC has declined in 27/4 – 6/5 time range. The company reached 3,321.00 in April 27^th and decline step by step to 3,172.00 in April 29^th. After that, it started to climbed slightly to 3,229.00 in May the first but was pull down again in 3,120.00 at May 5^th. That day was the company lower share price from April 4^th. However, this day, May 6^th, it revived from the grounded loss.

Followed by the stocks price was the company’s 5% decline in first half underlying tobacco sales. Though this decreasing sales has been still in the sales meeting target. Not only that the overall revenues fell to 4% to £ 12.1bn as the consumers gradually cut on smoking because of financial or health reason. However, the company expect in completing $7.1bn purchase of certain brands from Reynolds America and Lorillard combination when the deal passes anti-trust hurdle and plan on taking more brands if the regulator require it.

FTSE 100 Reported

The FTSE 100 opened in 6,927.58 May 6 2015. It reached the highest peak of the day at 6,973.51 and 6,921.96 for the lowest. The top gainers are Sage Group (The) PLC, Imperial Tobacco Group PLC, St Jame’s Place PLC, and Mondi PLC.

Sage Group (The) PLC rose in 6.04 percent up to 526.50 after opened in 501.50 for the day. It down to 484.60 before reached 533.00 for the highest price. While Imperial Tobacco Group PLC opened in 3,178.00 and climbed into 3,227.00 before slightly slipped to 3,191.00 then slowly up to 3,215 or rise about 3.04 percent.

Meanwhile, Sainsbury (J) PLC became the top loser of the day for now with 3.50 percent loss. It followed by Aberdeen Asset Management PLC, Antofagasta PLC, and Admiral Group PLC with 2.42%, 1.88%, and 1.66% each. 

A New Approach is Needed to Decrease Unemployed with Autism

From the statistic, it is said that 1 percent of the world population has autism spectrum disorder and in every 68 births 1has the disorder. Therefore, the percentage and quantity of population that has autism spectrum disorder may arise in the future.

It is a general knowledge that autism is life-long disorder. What will happen to autisms when they grew as adult? Can they feed themselves or their family one day? What will social look them as? As a parent with a child with autism that may become part of big worries. Then again, how about the now-adult with autism? The statistic said that in US 2014, 16.8 percent of people with disability were employed. The result is make sense as a lot business need employees that can fit with their system not one with a disorder and lack of communication skill. Moreover, while there are unemployed adults with disability, there are numbers of unemployed without disorder. Which one a company will choose?

Nations are not prepared with this. The unemployment rate for adults on the spectrum exceeds 90 percent. Therefore, new approached that let business employ this special population segment is needed. According to many autism advocates and the experience of progressive employers like Walgreens, innovative employment program that focus on this segment can turn some of them become the most diligent, dependable, and productive employees. Some businesses have tried it and succeeded. However, we need more business to try or the increasing number of adult with autism spectrum disorder will go unemployed.

Hang Seng Today

Hang Seng Index this day opened in 28,231.36 and reach 28,216.88 until this article is written. With the highest price 296.00 hold by Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd. The price has opened in 297.00 and reached their highest for the day at 299.40. Until the article was written, it down to 296.00. The second high price is CK Hutchison Holding Ltd in 170.10. The price opened in 169.400 and reached the highest at 170.200. Then it down 0.200 to 170.00.

The highest change of price is experienced by Sung Ha Kai Properties Ltd with 4.80 percent change. The price opened in 130 and climbed to 135.30 in stability. The Wharf Holding Ltd change 3.05 or 5.44 percent. The price opened in 56.450, reached the highest price in 58.900, and down to 58.850. Then it climbed again to 59.10

Social Platforms and Media Companies

Social platforms have been interested in media companies nowadays. Three big social platforms like Facebook, Twitter, and Snapchat plan to collaborate with media companies. Even the Snapchat has launched Discover, a section of app reserved for 11 media companies.

Why do the social platforms want to collaborate with media companies? What is the benefit for both side and must this collaboration take a place?

We all know about ‘war’ between social platforms has been stricter lately. Some come and some down. The three big social platforms have withstood newcomer for years and numerous people access them every second. Each has unique platform while all differ one with another. The biggest, most popular of the three for now is Facebook. Meanwhile, the other two most likely want to beat it.

The benefit of this collaboration for a social platform is an original native content can keep people stay in the app longer. While the ‘you’ll get everything you need here’ offer, will invite other to join. For the media companies, the platforms can fix their decreasing traffic. Furthermore, in this era, mobile devices are commonly used by reader than desktop and approved or not a social platform mobile friendly is better than a publisher’s is. All revolved around monetized. How much you sell nowadays. Years ago, a media company might sell a lot with their direct traffic. However, now all is changed. We can see a lot news link and video in social platforms and for reader, it is more comfortable. The only shortfall is, when you click on a link, seconds are needed to load.

As reported before, Snapchat launched Discover for 11 media company partners and Twitter want to buy one of media company. They have their reasons. Snapchat CEO, Evan Spiegel said that they wanted to built something that tried to bring editorial perspective, because they believed that would be really valuable to have someone who’s smarter than them to figure out what was important, because that was a full time job and a really hard. Twitter want to own one because of tool test reason before rolling them out to the broader community. Therefore it do not want to discriminate other publishers.

Unlike the other two social platforms, Facebook want to own the articles not the media companies. According to Wall Street Journal, Facebook want the media companies to start publishing article on its platform first and they may host advertisement next to the content. The revenue will be split or it may give some publishers all the revenue from certain ads to get publishers on board.

Low Oil Price, American Customers Go for SUVs

Big cars like SUVs and pickups becoming Americans favourite as fuel prices remaining low. The trend has started in the early 2015 until this month. Because of gasoline price drop about third from a year before, sales of large and luxury sport vehicle rose about 31 percent in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the family sedan and energy recovery technology has lost the customer interest. It seems like the American customers believe that the low price gasoline will be there forever. Even the president words to consider fuel-efficient was not been heard.

How long will the low price gasoline remain? With over-excited market, it seems like not last in long time. Over supply, decrease the price. While the price goes low, little by little the demands arise. Then it is not impossible to go over demand and increase the price.

Moreover, the low price of crude oil may last soon enough. If the supply of gasoline diminish and oil price increase, then the fuel price will be higher.

IDR, USD, and Living Cost

Can Indonesian Rupiah withstand US dollar?

The Indonesian Rupiah has weakened from August 2014. Grew a bit fluctuated until it dropped in December 2014 and got it lowest peak at March 2015. After that, it tried to strengthen its position and got almost stable. However, there is a prediction that the IDR would fall again and quite deeply if the now stabilities cannot be held until two or three months again at least.

What will Indonesia’s Central Bank do to withstand the crisis? Moreover, the crude oil seems to climb and there is a problem with the country’s vital trading partner that may affected the economic growth. Can Indonesia government solve the problem or will the living cost expand? We need to wait for further development. 

Execution and Indonesia Dropping

The execution of Australia’s citizen may cause a drop in Indonesia economic growth. Australia is a vital trading partner for Indonesia and it can be seen that Jakarta Composite Index slopped about 4.3 percent in the middle of the execution day. It rebounded afterward but still 2.6 percent lower than before. Two of the biggest companies such as PT Bank Central Asia and PT Unilever Indonesia got their incline 3.9 and 5.1 percent each.

Some may think that the drop was not influenced by the execution. However, can’t the timing be more accurate for a reason? Plan of boycotting goods and holidays have been heard, how many losses will Indonesia earn? The Prime Minister Tony Abbot followed the mood and said that he would withdraw Australia’s Ambassador to Indonesia.

If we think about death penalty, doesn’t it clear that the country – same as Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand – have announced that a death penalty will be fallen on drugs offence crime? Another issue arose here. The president influenced. He wanted to enforce the country laws and that is okay. However, for that kind influenced, the process must be followed and the questioned citizen has been there for 10 years and still in the process of appeal. The president stepped in can be seen as an unhealthy for the country system. 

Nikkei 225 Climbed

Nikkei 225 rose 0.38 percent to 20,058.95 points until this article was written. After opened in 20,068.65 it climbed high and got fluctuation before incline a bit at 11 AM ET. From that point the rising and falling was almost at insignificant number and stop at 20,058.95 until the article was written.

The highest incline was contributed by Fanuc Corp. After that, in 5.00 deviation Fast Retailing Co LTD following. In much different scale are Central Japan Railway Co, Denso Corp, and JTEKT Corp with more than 200 increasing point change.

About 150 companies point change has increased. While 8 has no progress this day and 68 decreasing.

Asian Market Slowly Climb

The Asian market has slowly climbed. Nikkei 225 went up for 0.38 percent or 75.63 point to 20,058.95. While Hang Seng crawled 0.03 percent or 9.16 point to 28,442.75. Taking a cue from losses on Wall Street ahead of earnings from major Asian companies and the Federal Reserve's policy meeting.

Texas High Car Insurance Rates

The new report has shown that Texas has the tenth highest rates in the country. The Texan drivers pay about six percent more than the country’s other part for car insurance. The high rates were analyzed as a result of densely population. Rates in densely populated are most likely higher because of the bigger chance of crime and crash.

However, a senior analyst said that population was not the only cause. There is an issue of uninsured driver there. According to the Texas Department of Insurance, 1 of 7 Texas drivers does not have insurance. Some of those uninsured driver live in the country illegally and have difficulty in getting insurance without license. As a result, the Texas insurance rates grow higher, because of the insured drivers have to subsidize those people.

A proposal to help this problem is created even though currently pending in committee right now. In the Texas House, a bill would create limited-use driver’s permits for people living in the state illegally

High Energy Cost Solutions?

High-energy cost has become attention. New England’s governor held a meeting on Thursday and agreed to cut it. They thought that oil and coal plants had to be retired in few years. To bring that in action, they plan to use renewal energy such as solar and wind energy.

Five of six region governors attended the meeting. Each brought their own objective and agreed to work across the region. The agreement reached because it would involve a little bit of everything.

They were considering range of energy choices to help energy cost. Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island are seeking power purchase agreements for hydropower or other types of renewal energy in one join effort. The Rode Island governor had proposed an infrastructure bank to centralize financing for friendly environmental public works.

The Vermont regulators are considering transmission lines that bring hydropower to transmission linking point to other areas in New England. Due to the region limited natural gas pipeline systems, which reach maximum capacity, make high energy cost. A construction is hard to take because of environmentalists  and some property owners oppositions. The opposition do not stop there, some protester even criticized the governor for advocating natural gas at an early session of the meeting. This can be understood, the governor has spent a lot for natural gas system and the bill will be stuck on ratepayers.

Stronger Yen, Lower Stocks

After the JPY robust against USD after the sliding of USD on Thursday because disappointing new economic data, Tokyo stocks opened 0.38 lower. The Nikkei 225 at the Tokyo Stock Exchange fell 75.37 points to 19,810.40 at the start of trade on Friday.

The data has shown that initial jobless claims, sign of the pace of layoff, increase above estimated level and the highest level in six weeks. While housing starts rose less than expected.

In Tokyo, US dollar fell 0.27 yen to 119.06 yen early on Friday after reached 199.33 yen the day before. For Japanese exporter, the stronger yen is negative aspect as it makes the less competitive abroad and erodes profit when repatriated.

A bit weakening has been seen in yen compare to euro. From 128.10 yen to 128.13 yen

Gas Leakage and Theft, Lower Telecom Plus Earnings

Telecom Plus, a multi-utility supplier based on United Kingdom which supply gas, electricity, landline, broadband, and mobile service to residence and business has been dazed for seeing a huge spike in leakages and theft at its gas supply business. The chief executive said that the leakage and theft level within the gas distribution network resulted in a lower level than previously anticipated earnings.

The pre-tax profit for the year is now expected to be around £52mln-£53mln, almost £10mln lower than previous estimates. The loss has reached £6mln for this year alone and £11mln for adding it with the accumulation between April 2007 and March 2014.

The provider shares fell 18% to 798p

Smart Business Decisions Software

 The first platform that integrates process analysis and Business Decision Manager (BDM) has been launched by Signavio, a German software vendor that has been known for its cloud-based Business Process Management (BPM). The software is called Signavio Decision Manager.

The software was promised to empower business user directly by putting them in driver seat regarding the definition of operational decision as Signavio said in California, Berlin, and Singapore.

The new software would empower organizations by decreasing risk and leveraging business opportunities in the digital era. Signavio added the statement because of the software is believed would go beyond rules and analytics. It would improve the costly and slow adaptation in changing business or regulatory needs. Therefore, it is said to have critical function for ensuring compliance in an age of increasing regulation and helps focus on high-impact decisions.

World Bank New Ideas for Remmitances

The World Bank has come with some new ideas for remittances coming into India, China, Philippines, Mexico, and Nigeria that is to build infrastructure. This idea come from seeing how much money those countries earn from citizens that working overseas. Sorting from the first of the list are $70bn, $64bn, and $28bn for Philippines. For total sum last year is $583bn on the official flow.

This money usually uses to send kids to school, wedding payment, buy a car, or build a house. However, The World Bank wants the money to be put in use for the beneficial of their country. They see the remittances can be used as potential resource for developing their country. For example, build a bullet train in India and international airport in Nigeria.

The remittances from overseas working citizen are seen as more stable than any other income in developing country. Even though the remittances are expected to grow slower this year, they are still estimated to rise at $586bn and will keep rise and come about $610bn in 2016 and $636bn in 2017, according to the World Bank. 

Asia Mixed Shares

Stocks in Asia were mixed regardless US shares closing higher

Tokyo Nikkei 225 went down 0.04 percent to 19,862.48 points while Japan’s Toyota shares rose slightly. Japan has overtaken China as the top holder of US government debt for the first time since the global financial crisis.

Hang Seng index fell 0.34 percent on 27,525.39 points while Sanghai Composite was down 0.82 percent to 4,050.73. Shares on the mainland has reported their biggest slump after China’s three months slow down on the economy growth this year.

South Korea’s benchmark Kospi index rose 0.39 percent to 2,128.13 points

source: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-32329978

Wall Street Development

Some development has been seen. The United State stocks fight ahead after several strong earnings was reported on Wednesday, while European shares have come to 14-year high following the European Central Bank loosed its policy stance.

WTI soared for more than 5% in Wednesday after the US government data showed that the crude oil inventories grew less than expected a week before. With the slight fall in US oil production, it has showed that the rise of oil stockpiles was the smallest rise this year. The 1.3 million barrels increasing in oil inventories below the analyst 4.1 million estimation and was the smallest build since January 2.

WTI futures has recorded 5.8 percent rise to $56.39 per barrel on Wednesday, the highest close from December. Still, there is estimation that the oil price will have another down-leg before climb higher in the second half of the year however, as an analyst said, the case for price to rise is building and $56 was the level to watch.

The ascend of price beside of lower US oil production, speculation has growth around OPEC might want to cut output at its June meeting and trader were also talking about the implication of a report that Russia and OPEC were talking, though Russia dismissed speculation that it would trim production. Russia has not cut back output, even after OPEC's November decision to hold production steady sent prices tumbling. Tensions in the Middle East have bolstered prices this week, as fighting in Yemen continues to spook the market that it could become a broader conflict.^[1]

Meanwhile, better-than-expected results have been heard from banks JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo and earnings from Intel that were broadly in line with expectations boosted Wall Street. First-quarter profits are seen falling 2.6 percent, largely due to weak energy earnings, but the reduced expectations are helping companies clear a lowered bar.^[2] 

note:

[1] source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102589546

[2] source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/15/us-markets-global-idUSKBN0N601720150415

Gravity Rising Payment

Recently, a Seattle entrepreneur that has started his business in his 19 from 2004 has been raising the minimum pay of his employees. Before, the minimum pay was about $48,000 a year and increased to $70,000. For this rising of payment, Dan Price the Founder and CEO of Gravity Payment, has reduced his own payment about 90% and used 75 to 80% of the anticipated $2.2 million in profit this year. The raise will be significantly increased for about 70 workers and about 30 will get doubled payment.

What make Dan Price do that? It may become one of the numerous first questions. United State has one of the world largest pay gaps. The CEO can afford three hundreds more payment than average employees can. It is a very huge gaps and even higher than 20-to-1 ratio recommended. Mr. Price sees this gap is ridiculous.

He grew in middle class lifestyle family and saw the struggle in it. Therefore, he understands how hard it is. Moreover, everyday he hear about how difficult to make an end meet with on salary even it were well-above $7.25 federal minimum and how his workers talk about raising rent cost, child education, and searching for home. He has done the rising so his employees can focus on work without think of basic needs. For the helping the company and the payment rising without charge more on the customer, Dan Price has reduced his salary until the company profit back like before. His target is two until three years.

His action invites not only compliment but also criticism. Some said that it was too costly and cumbersome. The company’s future is at stake in the moment Mr. Price realizing it. However, he said that he would like to have this spark a conversation and have people started to think about a different way of doing business.